Total Probability Calculation

The question asks the student to use the law of total probability to compute or justify the overall probability of an event by summing over all branches of the tree.

bac-s-maths 2016 Q1A View
A factory manufactures an electronic component. Two production lines are used. Production line A produces $40\%$ of the components and production line B produces the rest. Some of the manufactured components have a defect that prevents them from operating at the speed specified by the manufacturer. At the output of line A, $20\%$ of the components have this defect while at the output of line B, only $5\%$ do. A component manufactured in this factory is chosen at random. We denote: A the event ``the component comes from line A'', $B$ the event ``the component comes from line B'', S the event ``the component is defect-free''.
  1. Show that the probability of event $S$ is $P(S) = 0.89$.
  2. Given that the component has no defect, determine the probability that it comes from line A. The result should be given to the nearest $10^{-2}$.
bac-s-maths 2018 Q1A View
The municipality of a large city has a stock of DVDs that it offers for rental to users of the various media libraries in this city. Among the DVDs removed, some are defective, others are not. Among the $6\%$ of defective DVDs in the entire stock, $98\%$ are removed. It is also admitted that among the non-defective DVDs, $92\%$ are kept in stock; the others are removed.
A DVD is chosen at random from the municipality's stock. Consider the following events:
  • $D$: ``the DVD is defective'';
  • $R$: ``the DVD is removed from stock''.
We denote by $\bar{D}$ and $\bar{R}$ the complementary events of events $D$ and $R$ respectively.
  1. Prove that the probability of event $R$ is 0.134.
  2. A charitable association contacts the municipality with the aim of recovering all DVDs that are removed from stock. A city official then claims that among these removed DVDs, more than half are composed of defective DVDs. Is this claim true?