bac-s-maths 2013 Q1B

bac-s-maths · France · centres-etrangers Conditional Probability Sequential/Multi-Stage Conditional Probability
With three identical valves $V_1, V_2$ and $V_3$, we manufacture a hydraulic circuit. The circuit is operational if $V_1$ is operational or if $V_2$ and $V_3$ are simultaneously operational.
We treat as a random experiment the fact that each valve is or is not operational after 6000 hours. We denote:
  • $F_1$ the event: ``valve $V_1$ is operational after 6000 hours''.
  • $F_2$ the event: ``valve $V_2$ is operational after 6000 hours''.
  • $F_3$ the event: ``valve $V_3$ is operational after 6000 hours''.
  • $E$: the event: ``the circuit is operational after 6000 hours''.

We assume that the events $F_1, F_2$ and $F_3$ are pairwise independent and each have probability equal to 0.3.
  1. The probability tree shown represents part of the situation. Reproduce this tree and place the probabilities on the branches.
  2. Prove that $P(E) = 0.363$.
  3. Given that the circuit is operational after 6000 hours, calculate the probability that valve $V_1$ is operational at that time. Round to the nearest thousandth.
With three identical valves $V_1, V_2$ and $V_3$, we manufacture a hydraulic circuit. The circuit is operational if $V_1$ is operational or if $V_2$ and $V_3$ are simultaneously operational.

We treat as a random experiment the fact that each valve is or is not operational after 6000 hours. We denote:
\begin{itemize}
  \item $F_1$ the event: ``valve $V_1$ is operational after 6000 hours''.
  \item $F_2$ the event: ``valve $V_2$ is operational after 6000 hours''.
  \item $F_3$ the event: ``valve $V_3$ is operational after 6000 hours''.
  \item $E$: the event: ``the circuit is operational after 6000 hours''.
\end{itemize}

We assume that the events $F_1, F_2$ and $F_3$ are pairwise independent and each have probability equal to 0.3.

\begin{enumerate}
  \item The probability tree shown represents part of the situation. Reproduce this tree and place the probabilities on the branches.
  \item Prove that $P(E) = 0.363$.
  \item Given that the circuit is operational after 6000 hours, calculate the probability that valve $V_1$ is operational at that time. Round to the nearest thousandth.
\end{enumerate}