Exercise 1 — 6 points
Main topics covered: Probability
At a ski resort, there are two types of passes depending on the skier's age:
- a JUNIOR pass for people under 25 years old;
- a SENIOR pass for others.
Furthermore, a user can choose, in addition to the pass corresponding to their age, the skip-the-line option which allows them to reduce waiting time at the ski lifts. We assume that:
- $20 \%$ of skiers have a JUNIOR pass;
- $80 \%$ of skiers have a SENIOR pass;
- among skiers with a JUNIOR pass, $6 \%$ choose the skip-the-line option;
- among skiers with a SENIOR pass, $12.5 \%$ choose the skip-the-line option.
We interview a skier at random and consider the events:
- $J$ : ``the skier has a JUNIOR pass'';
- $C$ : ``the skier chooses the skip-the-line option''.
The two parts can be worked on independently
Part A
- Represent the situation with a probability tree.
- Calculate the probability $P ( J \cap C )$.
- Prove that the probability that the skier chooses the skip-the-line option is equal to 0.112.
- The skier has chosen the skip-the-line option. What is the probability that this is a skier with a SENIOR pass? Round the result to $10 ^ { - 3 }$.
- Is it true that people under twenty-five years old represent less than $15 \%$ of skiers who chose the skip-the-line option? Explain.
Part B
We recall that the probability that a skier chooses the skip-the-line option is equal to 0.112. We consider a sample of 30 skiers chosen at random. Let $X$ be the random variable that counts the number of skiers in the sample who chose the skip-the-line option.
- We assume that the random variable $X$ follows a binomial distribution. Give the parameters of this distribution.
- Calculate the probability that at least one of the 30 skiers chose the skip-the-line option. Round the result to $10 ^ { - 3 }$.
- Calculate the probability that at most one of the 30 skiers chose the skip-the-line option. Round the result to $10 ^ { - 3 }$.
- Calculate the expected value of the random variable $X$.