Probability Computation for Compound or Multi-Stage Random Experiments

The student must compute probabilities for outcomes of experiments involving multiple stages (e.g., drawing then rolling dice, sequential games) using total probability, conditional probability, or combinatorial enumeration.

kyotsu-test 2018 QCourse2-I-Q2 View
Let us throw one dice three times, and let the number that comes up on the first throw be $a$, on the second throw be $b$, and on the third throw be $c$. Using these $a , b$ and $c$, we consider the quadratic function $f ( x ) = a x ^ { 2 } + b x + c$.
(1) The probability that $b = 4$ and that the quadratic equation $f ( x ) = 0$ has two different real solutions is $\frac { \mathbf { N } } { \mathbf { O } \mathbf { P Q } }$.
(2) Let us find the probability that $f ( 10 ) > 453$.
The number of the cases of $( a , b , c )$ such that $f ( 10 ) > 453$ is as follows: when $a = 4$ and $b = 5$, it is $\mathbf { R }$; when $a = 4$ and $b = 6$, it is $\mathbf{S}$; when $a = 5$, it is $\mathbf{TU}$; when $a = 6$, it is $\mathbf{VW}$. Hence, the probability that $f ( 10 ) > 453$ is $\frac { \mathbf { X } } { \mathbf { Y } }$.
todai-math 2020 Q6 View
Consider a game where points are awarded in $n$ independent trials. In each trial, either $+1$ or $-1$ is awarded and both outcomes have the same probability of $1/2$. Let $X _ { k }$ be the point awarded in the $k ^ { \text {th } }$ trial $( 1 \leq k \leq n )$, and $S _ { k } = \sum _ { i = 1 } ^ { k } X _ { i }$. In the following questions, $n$ is an even integer such that $n \geq 4$, and $t$ is an even integer such that $2 \leq t \leq n$.
I. Obtain the probability for $S _ { 4 } = 0$.
II. Let $P _ { n } ( t )$ be the probability for $S _ { n } = t$. Find $P _ { n } ( t )$.
III. Let $P _ { n } ^ { + } ( t )$ be the probability for $S _ { 1 } = 1$ and $S _ { n } = t$. Find $P _ { n } ^ { + } ( t )$.
IV. Let $P _ { n } ^ { - } ( t )$ be the probability for $S _ { 1 } = - 1$ and $S _ { n } = t$. Find $P _ { n } ^ { - } ( t )$.
V. Let $Q _ { n } ( t )$ be the probability that all of the variables $\left\{ S _ { j } \right\}$ $( j = 1,2 , \cdots , n - 1 )$ are greater than zero and $S _ { n } = t$. Express $Q _ { n } ( t )$ with $P _ { n } ^ { + } ( t )$ and $P _ { n } ^ { - } ( t )$. Then, express $Q _ { n } ( t )$ with $P _ { n } ( t )$.
VI. Obtain the probability that all of the variables $\left\{ S _ { j } \right\} ( j = 1,2 , \cdots , n )$ are greater than zero.