A company calls people by telephone to sell them a product.
The company calls each person a first time:
the probability that the person does not answer is equal to 0.6;
if the person answers, the probability that they buy the product is equal to 0.3.
If the person did not answer on the first call, a second call is made:
the probability that the person does not answer is equal to 0.3;
if the person answers, the probability that they buy the product is equal to 0.2.
If a person does not answer on the second call, we stop contacting them.
We choose a person at random and consider the following events: $D _ { 1 }$: ``the person answers on the first call''; $D _ { 2 }$: ``the person answers on the second call''; $A$: ``the person buys the product''.
Part A
Copy and complete the weighted tree opposite.
Using the weighted tree, show that the probability of event $A$ is $P ( A ) = 0.204$.
We know that the person bought the product. What is the probability that they answered on the first call?
Part B
We recall that, for a given person, the probability that they buy the product is equal to 0.204.
We consider a random sample of 30 people. Let $X$ be the random variable that gives the number of people in the sample who buy the product. a. We admit that $X$ follows a binomial distribution. Give, without justification, its parameters. b. Determine the probability that exactly 6 people in the sample buy the product. Round the result to the nearest thousandth. c. Calculate the expected value of the random variable $X$. Interpret the result.
Let $n$ be a non-zero natural number. We now consider a sample of $n$ people. Determine the smallest value of $n$ such that the probability that at least one person in the sample buys the product is greater than or equal to 0.99.
A company calls people by telephone to sell them a product.
\begin{itemize}
\item The company calls each person a first time:
\item the probability that the person does not answer is equal to 0.6;
\item if the person answers, the probability that they buy the product is equal to 0.3.
\item If the person did not answer on the first call, a second call is made:
\item the probability that the person does not answer is equal to 0.3;
\item if the person answers, the probability that they buy the product is equal to 0.2.
\item If a person does not answer on the second call, we stop contacting them.
\end{itemize}
We choose a person at random and consider the following events:\\
$D _ { 1 }$: ``the person answers on the first call'';\\
$D _ { 2 }$: ``the person answers on the second call'';\\
$A$: ``the person buys the product''.
\section*{Part A}
\begin{enumerate}
\item Copy and complete the weighted tree opposite.
\item Using the weighted tree, show that the probability of event $A$ is $P ( A ) = 0.204$.
\item We know that the person bought the product. What is the probability that they answered on the first call?
\end{enumerate}
\section*{Part B}
We recall that, for a given person, the probability that they buy the product is equal to 0.204.
\begin{enumerate}
\item We consider a random sample of 30 people. Let $X$ be the random variable that gives the number of people in the sample who buy the product.\\
a. We admit that $X$ follows a binomial distribution. Give, without justification, its parameters.\\
b. Determine the probability that exactly 6 people in the sample buy the product. Round the result to the nearest thousandth.\\
c. Calculate the expected value of the random variable $X$. Interpret the result.
\item Let $n$ be a non-zero natural number. We now consider a sample of $n$ people. Determine the smallest value of $n$ such that the probability that at least one person in the sample buys the product is greater than or equal to 0.99.
\end{enumerate}