Establish the following identity: for $( s , i , r ) \in E$, for all $k \in \{ 0 , \cdots , s \}$, $$\mathbf { P } \left( \Delta \tilde { S } _ { n } = - k \mid \left( \tilde { S } _ { n } , \tilde { I } _ { n } , \tilde { R } _ { n } \right) = ( s , i , r ) \right) = \binom { s } { k } ( p ( i ) ) ^ { k } ( 1 - p ( i ) ) ^ { s - k }$$ where $p(i)$ is the probability for a susceptible person to be infected during the day (as found in question 21), and the $s$ susceptible persons act independently.
Establish the following identity: for $( s , i , r ) \in E$, for all $k \in \{ 0 , \cdots , s \}$,
$$\mathbf { P } \left( \Delta \tilde { S } _ { n } = - k \mid \left( \tilde { S } _ { n } , \tilde { I } _ { n } , \tilde { R } _ { n } \right) = ( s , i , r ) \right) = \binom { s } { k } ( p ( i ) ) ^ { k } ( 1 - p ( i ) ) ^ { s - k }$$
where $p(i)$ is the probability for a susceptible person to be infected during the day (as found in question 21), and the $s$ susceptible persons act independently.